There was good news and bad news with the monthly sales volume in December. Sales volume was up 24.4% from November. A typical November to December increase in recent years is 18.6%. That’s the good news. The bad news was that December’s 3,191 transactions were still down 12.6% from December ’09 and ranked it as the second lowest December in the 23 years since DataQuick began tracking these numbers.

There were median sales price increases for all 4 of the Carlsbad zip codes when compared with December ’09 numbers. 92008 was up 5%, 92009 was up 3.2%, 92010 was up 19.1% and 92011 was up 16.4%. When you look at year-to-year appreciation or depreciation on a monthly level, they fluctuate quite a bit, but December was definitely a bright spot for Carlsbad home prices.

There were a couple really interesting pieces of news over the last few weeks. On January 21, Forbes came out with an article, “Best and Worst Cities for Home Values in 2011.” On the “Best” list, San Diego ranked 5^th out of 315 markets with an appreciation of 2% projected for 2011 and 2% annualized for the next three years. And, on February 10, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate crept above 5% for the first time since May, 2010. With rates seemingly on the rise and sources like Forbes predicting our market to be one of the best positioned for a recovery, this creates more of an urgency for buyers to engage in our market. It’s another ray of sunlight.

(Data from DataQuick and Jan. 17, 2011 UT article, “San Diego County Home Sales Up, But Prices Fall”)

These children and their families are my heroes for what they must endure. Knowing how the most minor of hurdles, like getting a child off of training wheels, can consume my mind; I can’t even fathom what their experiences are like. In addition to prayer, here’s another way you can assist families like this in our community. On January 22, the 2^nd annual Mitchell Thorp Walkathon will be held at Carlsbad’s Poinsettia Park to raise funds for The Mitchell Thorp Foundation, a non-profit that was started by the Thorp family in memory of their son, Mitchell, who died in 2009 at the age of 18 after a long fight with an undiagnosed illness.

The Mitchell Thorp Foundation “supports families, whose children suffer from life-threatening illnesses, diseases and disorders. MTF ‘cares for the caregiver’ by providing both financial and emotional support to these families in their time of need.”  Please visit their website, www.mitchellthorp.com, for more information on the walkathon or how to donate to the foundation. Again, it is Saturday, January 22, rain or shine, with 9am sign-in and 10am walk start.  When on the website, please take the time to read “Mitchell’s Story.” You will realize that not only are you assisting families in need, but you are also honoring a true hero.

Here’s a list of Carlsbad New Home communities from the December 18,^, 2010 San Diego Union Tribune New Home Directory, plus some additional research on my part. I’m happy to provide further information on each along with an update on what inventory is still available. Tim Holsten, Windermere Exclusive Properties, 858-922-708.

Dolcetto at La Costa Ridge – City Ventures – only 1 model left as of 12/21/10. 3573 square feet, 3-4 bedroom at $649,900. 3263 Sitio Avellana.

CopperWood @ La Costa Oaks – Colrich – 3,189-3,884 square feet, 4-6 bedrooms from the high $700’s. 7143 Sitio Bahia, 92009

RockLedge at La Costa Oaks – Colrich -  1,913–2,463 square feet, 3-5 bedrooms from the high $500’s. 3618 Corte Casera, 92009

SolTerra at La Costa Greens – Colrich – 1,989-2,196 square feet, 3-5 bedrooms from the mid $500’s. 6448 Cinnabar Way, 92009

Mirasol at La Costa Greens – William Lyon Homes – 3,066-3,314 square feet, 3-5 bedrooms from the high $600’s. 2346 Geode Lane, 92009

Viridian at La Costa Greens – Taylor Morrison – 2,823-4,601 square feet, 3-5 bedrooms from the low $900’s.

Avellino at La Costa Greens – KB Home – 1,615-2,216 square foot attached homes, up to 4 bedrooms from mid $400’s. 6970 Feldspar Place, 92009

53 Melrose – DR Horton – 2,025-2,411 square feet, 3-5 bedrooms from the low $500’s. 3466 Fioli Circle, 92009

Alcea @ Foothills – DR Horton – 1,753-2,052 square feet, 3-4 bedrooms from the upper $400’s. 3675 Glen Avenue, 92010

Rockrose  @ Foothills– Brook field – 2,116-3,167 square feet, 3-4 bedrooms from the high $500’s. 3538 Glen Avenue, 92010

Blossom Grove @ Foothills – William Lyon Homes – 1,992-2,840 square feet, 3-5 bedrooms from the mid $500’s. 3710 Glen Avenue, 92010

Crescent Del Sol – Lagoon Breeze Development – 3,258 to 4,307 square feet, 3-4+ bedrooms from the $1,800’s. 234 Date Avenue, 92008

Emerald Pointe Estates – RWR Homes  - 3,777 to 4,734 square feet from the high $900’s. 1380 Sapphire Drive, 92011

Although the recent growth is good news, the sales volume has been down for five straight months on a year-over-year basis.  This is likely because there were tax incentives to home buying earlier in the year and those sped up a lot of buyers. San Diego’s sales volume is down 18.5% from November of last year. We’re unfortunately outpacing Southern California, which is down 15.5% as a whole.

An improving economy and job market would likely bring many buyers back into the game. USD economist Alan Gin forecasts 10,000 more jobs in 2011 in the county, which would almost make up for the 11,000-job loss over the last 12 months. This should also help sales of the higher end homes, including a lot of Carlsbad Real Estate, which are still taking a hit because of lending challenges and lack of move up buyers.

What I find really interesting is how low the level of new construction is in the county. Alan Nevin, economist at MarketPointe Realty Advisors, says the figure is far below the 10,000-unit count needed to meet an annual 30,000 person population growth the regions expects for the next decade. Unless construction picks up significantly, this could ultimately lead to a shortage, which would drives prices up.

It is still unclear whether our market has fully made it out of the valley, or whether there are still more hills to climb. “I think I can” could always become “I thought I could.” Personally, I’m out there cheering on the Little Engine with all of the encouragement I can muster. Carlsbad and the San Diego area as a whole are fantastic places to live and our ocean breezes need to provide that Little Engine with a tailwind.

*This article pulled info from San Diego Union Tribune articles, December 14, “Jobs, not housing dominate real estate conference,” December 15, “SoCal home prices outpaced San Diego’s in November,” and December 14, “Home prices inched up in November.”

The most popular is the flat, scenic Lagoon trail, 2.13 miles that travels along the north shore of the Batiquitos Lagoon—4.26 miles roundtrip. There are 4 parking lots for this trail: one at the west end on Gabbiano Lane, one at the east end on Batiquitos Drive and two more in the middle on Batiquitos Drive. You’ll pass just as many families and birdwatchers as you will other runners. There’s even a nature center near the south entrance.

There are four more named trails, Black Sage, Salt Marsh, Eucalyptus and Golf View. All are relatively short and they aren’t all interconnected. To run them you will need to often run on the roads to get from one to the other. The City of Carlsbad website has a good map of their locations. Simply search “City of Carlsbad Aviara Trails.”

There is one route I would recommend if you want to get in a good workout that incorporates both the relaxing Lagoon trail and a challenging hill. About halfway through the Lagoon trail there is a short steep hill(about 10 yards long) that exits to one of the parking lots off Batiquitos Drive.  Run directly across Batiquitos and up Golden Star Lane. Take an immediate left on Savannah Lane and then an immediate right up the steep trail. This is the 1.2-mile long Eucalyptus Trail. Steep and moderate up with some steep down at the very end.  Takes you through and provides views of some of the best Carlsbad Real Estate in the Aviara area. Adds a strenuous 2.4-mile loop to the potential 4.26 you can do on the Lagoon trail. Enjoy!

Sometimes you absolutely don’t want to be #1. As A Carlsbad Realtor, when it comes to ranking the least affordable housing markets in our country, I do not want to see the San Diego area at the top. Thankfully, we are not. According to the most recent quarterly survey from the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Opportunity Index, we are the 12^th least affordable. Of course, prices vary drastically across the county so if this were broken down to the city or zip code level, many would be more affordable, some even less.

Per the November 25 San Diego Union Tribune article “San Diego housing affordability up slightly in 3^rd quarter,” 226 housing markets were surveyed. Housing affordability measures the degree to how much a typical local family can afford the monthly mortgage payments of a typical local home. Interest rates, median home prices and median incomes are part of the equation. Higher % affordability simply means more families can afford to purchase. New York was the least affordable at 22.6%. Kokomo, Indiana, was the most affordable at 96.1%. I’m pretty sure this is not the same Kokomo The Beach Boys sang about.

San Diego’s current affordability is 51.1%. This is a vast improvement from back in 2005 when San Diego was the 7^th least affordable at 3.6%. Still, at one point last year San Diego dropped to 25^th on the list and affordability got up to 58.8%. Affordability usually trends down as prices increase and that’s what has happened to our median price since 2009.

Nationally, affordability was 72.1%. Nationally, the median home price, $180K, is much lower than San Diego, $325K in the third quarter. Still, San Diego’s median family income, $75,500, is not dramatically higher than the $64,400 national figure.

How affordable the San Diego housing market remains will be based on which direction home prices go, assuming interest rates and incomes remain steady. Rising prices = lower affordability. Dropping prices = higher affordability. Rising prices, although they technically lower affordability, are usually a sign of a better market to come. As a Carlsbad Realtor and area homeowner, that one gets my vote.

-       First-time buyers made up 46% of the 2010 purchasers. They made up 38% in 2009, only 7% in 2002.

-       3/4 of the 2010 first-time buyers said the federal home buyer tax credit had an impact on their decision to buy.

-       Home buyers who bought an REO/bank-owned property increased to 41% in 2010 from 38% in 2009.

-       Home buyers who bought a short-sale home increased to 16% in 2010 from 13% in 2009.

-       Regular market sales decreased to 43% in 2010 from 49% in 2009.

-       23% of 2010 home buyers believe their neighborhood will go up in value over a year. In 2009, only 8% believed this.

-       On a scale of “1” to “10” with “1” being “very easy” to obtain financing and “10” being “very difficult”, home buyers reported an average of 8.5 in 2010, compared to 8.1 in 2009.

-       Top 2 reasons home buyers were satisfied with their agent: 1) Always quick to respond (74%), 2) Negotiated good deal on their behalf (69%).

-       Top reason home buyers are dissatisfied with their agent: Not negotiating aggressively.

-       % of home buyers who would use their same agent again in the future = 72%.

The median San Diego County home rose to $334,500, a 1.2% increase from last month, and a 2.9% increase from October of 2009.  The 2010 market’s current peak was $340K in May. The overall peak was $517,500 in November 2005. The overall low was $280K in January 2009.

There were 2,750 transactions in October, a 10.4% decrease from last month. This is typical with the beginning of the school year. What was unexpected though was the year over year drop of 25.1%.  DataQuick analyst Andre LePage said this stemmed from a combination of a lousy economy, low consumer confidence and the aftermath of the expired tax credits. Many economists think the tax credits from earlier this year sped up buyers’ timelines but did not necessarily pull new buyers into the market. This in essence is robbing sales from the second half of the year.

How did Carlsbad Real Estate fare in October? 3 out of the 4 Carlsbad zip codes fared better than the county median in October, achieving year over year price increases of 5 – 6.8%. The volume of Carlsbad Real Estate dropped year over year, but only 8.6%, vs. 25% for the county.

San Diego County Median Home Prices

San Diego County Homes Sales Volume

On a potential upbeat note, LePage says “If prices drift lower over the winter and in the meantime the economy improves and consumer confidence rises, then we could see much improved sales in the spring, especially if there is ample inventory and rates are still super-low.” I am currently seeing a lot of activity in my Carlsbad Real Estate office so I view that as a good sign. It will be interesting to see how Carlsbad Real Estate does in November.

I remember the first day I heard mention of this amazing planned Carlsbad Park – Alga Norte Community Park. Interested in the value add for Carlsbad Real Estate, I drove by the parcel of land, took pictures of the open space and sent a mailer to all of my clients announcing the pending arrival of this wonderful community facility. Seven years later, I am still anxiously awaiting this Carlsbad Park though I am fully aware that economic challenges have made ‘due dates’ much less predictable. It is definitely a positive sign though that the land was finally graded this year. We are getting closer, folks, but it will still take at least a couple of years to build out.

Alga Norte Community Park will cover 32 acres between El Camino Real and Alicante Road just north of Poinsettia Lane in the 92009 zip code.  It will be nestled between the Carlsbad Real Estate communities of La Costa Greens and Bressi Ranch. In its current proposed configuration it will contain: aquatic center featuring multiple pools (one competitive), ball fields, basketball courts, dog park, playground, picnic areas, public meeting facilities and a skatepark. This will be the Grand Poobah of the Carlsbad Parks system and there is even a proposal to add pool slides, a wet play structure and a “lazy river” in a future phase.

What got me the most excited years ago was that I used to swim at the Carlsbad High School pool, which had been the only city pool offering. The idea of a newer aquatic center was very appealing. There is no doubt in my mind that this park is going to add a lot of value to the community of Carlsbad. Not only do the numerous recreational opportunities add value to people’s quality of living, but they should also add monetary value to the nearby Carlsbad Real Estate. Imagine how many times after this ‘super’ park is completed you will hear your friends from neighboring communities go, “I sure wish we had one of these by our home.”

South Carlsbad State Beach Campgrounds

As any resident of Carlsbad can tell you, it is a healthy place to live. I’m not talking about what you can put into your body, although there are plenty of smart choices for that; I’m talking about what you can do with your body and where you can take it.  If you enjoy walking, hiking, running or biking, this is the area for you. And, with Carlsbad Real Estate values and mortgage rates down, this is the perfect time to relocate here.

Personally, I run. I do it to energize my body and mind and it is definitely a blessing to have a hobby like this in an area with so many choices, the most obvious being our beautiful coastal fronting 101 and its surrounding streets. Over the years I have developed a few favorites that I think most would find pleasing, regardless of whether you walk, hike, bike or run.

The South Carlsbad State Beach Campgrounds are very hard to get a reservation to camp in because of their ocean bluff location in Carlsbad, but they are open to public access so they are a great place to take a stroll. Equipped with bathrooms and a general store for the campers, it comes with amenities most runs do not. There’s only one road through the campground, no chance of getting lost, and it has very gentle inclines and declines that will keep your legs entertained. Don’t quote me on this but I believe it is approximately a mile and a half from one end to the other.

If you enjoy meandering on the beach, there are multiple staircases that will take you down to the very private beach and you can create a loop with part campground/part beach. Or, if you are going for a longer distance you incorporate the campgrounds somewhere into the mix. They are located at the intersection of Poinsettia Ave and Carlsbad Blvd (101), and go about three quarters of a mile both north and south along the ocean.

My favorite secondary activity in the campground is people watching. It is a fun place to slowly observe all walks of life coming together for one of my favorite pastimes, camping. You will rarely see an upset person here. Not so surprisingly, many of the campers are Carlsbad residents who choose to live in Carlsbad Real Estate and play in their own backyard. Also, be warned, you are going to see a lot of delicious food and inhale a lot of wonderful smells (the smell of bacon is everywhere in the morning), so you are going to leave with an appetite.  Enjoy! I will be providing more recommendations weekly.